International week this week and only a handful of our teams are looking good for a spell in South Africa next summer. The Dutch, who have completed their campaign, and the Spanish are already there and Italy can start booking hotels with confidence. Germany, France and Portugal's hopes are in the balance while Poland are going nowhere.
Saturday:
Russia v Germany
Armenia v Spain
Czech Republic v Poland
France v Faroe Islands
Republic of Ireland v Italy
Portugal v Hungary
Wednesday:
Germany v Finland
Bosnia v Spain
France v Austria
Italy v Cyprus
Poland v Slovakia
Portugal v Malta
France are in the merde. An automatic place looks beyond them - they're four points adrift of Serbia - and they're without several key players for this week's games. Yoann Gourcuff, Samir Nasri and Franck Ribéry are all injured which robs them of pretty much all creativity. Raymond Domenech was, rightly, criticised for playing two holding midfielders in games Les Bleus simply had to win. In the build-up to these latest matches, he's been more often quoted about his ambitions in the world of poker than he has about football. He comes across as a man who knows he'll have plenty of spare time on his hands in a few weeks time. France ought to beat Austria and the Faroes this week, but a play-off place is all that's at stake. Win or lose that, they still need a change of direction at the top. Domenech must go and even two eye-catching performances this week will not change that, regardless of the fact that his teams simply don't do eye-catching. The one hope is that Serbia are under threat of points deductions if there's any more bother at their games. It would sum up a terrible campaign if France were to go through by default.
Spain round off a successful campaign with a tour round Eastern Europe. They could be without Fernando Torres as well as David Villa - Torres limped out of training - but still have way too much firepower to end the campaign with anything other than a big, fat duck egg in the L column on the table.
Poland are out, as is Leo Beenhakker already, and finish with two really tough fixtures. The Czechs haven't impressed, but are still a far better side than Poland while Slovakia are hot favourites to win the group and the game against Poland on Wednesday could easily be their coronation. A miserable end to a miserable campaign fought with all the style and panache of Rudy Giuliani's US presidential attempt. That is to say, none at all.
Saturday's game in Moscow will all but determine the outcome of Group 4 where Russia are a point behind the visitors, Germany. The loser will go to the play-offs with both sides having relatively straightforward fixtures on Wednesday, moreso Russia. On the artificial surface in the Luzhniki, a stumbling German side - two practice games against Mainz reserves failed to muster a goal - look vulnerable. Mario Gomez, Lukas Podolski and Miro Klose are - how to put this gently - not troubling the scorers a great deal this season. Just what is it about Bayern that turns competent forwards into shambling relics of their former selves? The game is live in the UK on ESPN and it promises plenty of tension if nothing else.
Portugal are hoping for a minor miracle. Malta are easy-beats - they've not scored in the entire campaign as yet - but Hungary are anything but, despite fading from the dizzy heights after the last round of matches. Even with six points, Denmark only need a point to seal qualification. If Denmark get that point against Sweden, then the Swedes only have to beat Albania at home to secure second place and that play-off spot. So Portugal are relying on Denmark to do them a big, big favour. As if the Denmark v Sweden game needed anything else placing on it.
Marcello Lippi is under pressure, so he's done what he did in club football for so long - pick a Juventus side. Ignoring pressure to pick the in-form Antonio Cassano, he's stuck with what he knows and it'll be Alberto Gilardino and Vincenzo Iaquinta up top, though both have patchy recent records in the Azzurri shirt. Seven Juve players are in line for a start at Croke Park where a draw will see Italy to qualification. They then finish at home to Cyprus, but the Italian media are looking for a sign that they're still a force. They will qualify top of the group, but how they do it is almost as important. They're without Fabio Cannavaro for the Ireland game due to suspension, but will he be around for the finals? More on that later.
Elsewhere on Saturday, there's that Denmark v Sweden crunch clash with more than just local bragging rights at stake and it's Slovakia v Slovenia in a mighty tussle in Group 3.
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